OFF THE CUFF - Fantasy Sports -

Post-hype sleepers was a key topic at the 2009 First Pitch Forum held Saturday, March 14 at the Marriott Marquis in Saddle Brook, N.J.

Head speaker Ron Shandler of Baseballhq.com was feeling rather bullish on a few over-publicized players, who haven't quite produced to the level they were expected to perform.

Alex Gordon, Jeremy Hermida, Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales and Ricky Weeks were some of the fantasy options he felt are being undervalued due their underwhelming showings thus far.

In the case of the Kansas City third baseman—once projected to be the next George Brett—Shandler noted his second-half gains in flyballs, walks and overall power index, and hinted at a 30-home-run upside.

When addressing Kendrick, the speaker deemed him an "elite" batsman— as evidenced by a .360 career batting average in the minor leagues—despite a recent stroke of bad luck, which has seen the young second baseman suffer a broken hand and broken finger on two separate occasions.

Florida's Jeremy Hermida was another player Shandler saw as an underpriced commodity in auction leagues, who's putting up good numbers in spring training.

"Go the extra buck," he recommended. "The skills are there. These are the same skills we've seen in the minors."

Non-closers with saves potential

Local fantasy baseball analyst Lenny Melnick of Fresh Meadows offered his take on the unsettled closer situation in St. Louis by touting Jason Motte as an intriguing option.

Melnick waxed poetic on the 26- year-old's ability to reach triple digits with his fastball.

Although Chris Perez remains the favorite to close out games going into the season, the longtime fantasy guru wasn't very high on the player's lacking killer instinct.

During a recent interview, revealed Melnick, Perez indicated that he was just "happy to make the team" instead of aspiring greatness.

Those at the conference were also advised to keep an eye on under-the-radar types, such as Florida's Leo Nuñez and Glen Cove's own Craig Hansen of the Pittsburgh Pirates as two players in position to rack up saves should Matt Lindstrom or Matt Capps falter or fall prey to injury.

Not high on K-Rod

Baseball HQ's Matt Beagle focused on big-name pitchers with inflated values.

He mentioned Carlos Zambrano, Cliff Lee, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Joe Saunders and Francisco Rodriguez as players that probably won't provide what's being expected of them based on last year's numbers.

Beagle observed that fantasy owners are paying too high a price in both auction and snake drafts for Rodriguez's 62 saves in 2008, when one may only end up with 50 percent on their investment. .

He cautioned the audience about the fact that the former Angel has experienced a decrease of strikeouts per-nine-innings (K/9) from 12 to 10, and also communicated that his 2008 stats point to an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.76 instead of 2.84.

Similarly, the Pennsylvania native wasn't very optimistic on the Chicago Cub's pitching staff.

Carlos Zambrano, he said, has logged too many innings on his arm and has shown a marked decrease in the his K/9 stats over the years.

Fellow Cub Ryan Dempster, on the other hand, is coming off a career year, where he posted his first-ever season with a control ratio of over 2.0 (strikeouts-to-walks ratio), according to Beagle.

In addition, the journeyman hurler also saw a significant jump in his workload last year in which he went from pitching 141.2 innings during the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined to 206.2 innings in his 2008 campaign.

As far as Rich Harden is concerned, Beagle mentioned a rather high hit rate (26 percent), rising flyball trends, a 76-percent strand rate (runners left on base) and an increased workload as reasons to be wary of the oft-injured fireballer's prospects.

Undervalued hitters

Beagle also shared his though on nine players being drafted two rounds too late.

Mike Napoli, Mike Jacobs, Placido Polanco, Felipe Lopez, Adrian Beltré, Torii Hunter, André Ethier, Vernon Wells and Nate McLouth all made the list.

Regarding Beltré, Beagle underscored the fact that the third baseman's power index has been in triple digits for five straight years.

He also endorsed Ethier due to three-year rise in his home run-perflyball rate (HR/FB), and also saw the return of Manny Ramirez to the Dodger lineup as another reason to have high hopes for the soon-to-be 27-year-old lefty outfielder.

Detroit's Placido Polanco was mentioned as late-round sleeper with a track record of nine years in which he has posted a batting average of .298 or better at second base.

Caveat emptor

Rick Wilton, aka Dr. HQ., issued a buyer-beware warning on those looking to invest in outfielder Carlos Quentin with an early-round pick.

Quentin, he noted, suffered a fractured wrist last August, which may require quite a bit of recovery time.

In fact, Wilton estimated that it will probably take the White Sock about 12 months before he totally bounces back from the injury and feels totally comfortable at the plate. .