Fantasy Football Primer

Is Reggie Wayne still a top-10 receiver? Probably, but in 2010 he’ll most likely be closer to 10 than he’ll be to number one.

Although the 31-year-old is by no means over the hill, signs of decline were evident last season. In fact, his yards-per-catch average was down to 12.6 yards from 14 and 14.5 yards in his previous two years. Also, Wayne made only one catch of over 40 yards in 2009.

Most importantly, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Indy. Not only have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon emerged as important components in the passing game alongside Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark, but Anthony Gonzalez is also coming back from an injury plagued season.

What about Larry Fitzgerald? Last year, he was on the cover of every fantasy magazine. Is he still an elite fantasy performer? Yes, but much like Wayne, he’ll in all probability end up of on the lower end of the top-ten totem pole due to the retirement of future Hall-of-Famer Kurt Warner.

Warner was arguably one of the most accurate field generals in NFL history. His successor, Matt Leinart, quite simply isn’t. The former USC Trojan tends to sail balls over his receiver’s heads and has yet to prove he has the arm strength to squeeze pinpoint throws in tight windows.

Expect coach Ken Whisenhunt to focus more on establishing the running game. He has a bull in Chris “Beanie” Wells who looks a lot like Adrian Peterson both in his running style and in his tendency to put the ball on the ground.

Following the same theme, Marques Colston is a great talent, but he isn’t someone who should be counted on regularly to put up big numbers on a weekly basis.

Not only does Drew Brees has an embarrassment of riches to throw to, but he’s infamous for spreading the wealth among the ultra-talented Robert Meachem, deep threat Devery Henderson, slot man Lance Moore and two very capable tight ends in Jeremy Shockey and David Thomas. Throw rookie tight end Jimmy Graham into the mix and the situation really becomes muddled.

If you’re looking for rising stars on the verge of breaking out, look up Hakeem Nicks, Devin Aromashodu and Jeremy Maclin.

Nicks’ stats would’ve looked a lot better if not for a broken toe that hampered him early in his rookie campaign. The North Carolina product is big, sure-handed and makes plays in traffic. Don’t be shocked if Nicks suddenly becomes that Plaxico Burress type target that Eli Manning will lock in on in the red zone.

Aromashodu is a 6-2 playmaker with speed and Jay Cutler loves throwing to him so much that he actually asked the coaching staff to give him more playing time last season. Look for the agile 26-year-old to be on the receiving end of some big plays in Mike Martz’s pass-happy attack.

Maclin, on the other hand, wasted no time in becoming a difference maker last year because he’s a fast learner, who doesn’t make the same mistakes twice. He has the acceleration and long speed to make the most of Kevin Kolb’s lead throws.

One wide out to keep your eye on is Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson. He possesses a lot of the same qualities that Donald Driver has. The 35-year-old Driver is coming off two knee surgeries and may have to give up some playing time to Nelson in the Packers’ high-octane offense. Unless you’re in a deep league, don’t draft Nelson just yet, but don’t forget about him either.

As far as tight ends go, Zach Miller’s 805 yards and three touchdowns are mighty impressive when you consider that JaMarcus Russell and Bruce Gradkowski were the guys feeding him the rock. The 6-5 tight end was more effective than players such as Tony Gonzalez in the area of yards-per-pass-attempt.

Oakland’s new quarterback Jason Campbell did a credible job connecting with tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis as a Redskin last year, which bodes well for Miller.

Don’t be surprised if Anthony Fasano outperforms some bigger names. The young veteran is a prime target on plays inside the five yard line and will be valuable in touchdown leagues.